The short-term supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak, and the midline is expected to increase both

Nickel varieties:

Nickel prices maintained a strong run yesterday, the spot market was lightly traded, the willingness to chase higher downstream was weak, and the spot premiums were divided. Because imports were still losing money, Russian nickel premiums were relatively strong. According to SMM data, the spot premium of Jinchuan Nickel fell by 750 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton yesterday, the premium of Russian nickel rose by 50 yuan/ton to 7,400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans remained the same at 3,250 yuan/ton. Yesterday, Shanghai Nickel (228150, 410.00, 0.18%) warehouse receipts were unchanged at 1098 tons, and LME nickel stocks decreased by 144 tons to 54300 tons. Recently, the demand for nickel sulfate has been poor, and the price has continued to fall. The loss of nickel bean self-dissolving nickel sulfate is at a historical high.

■Nickel point of view:

At present, the middle line of nickel is negative and the situation of low inventory is stalemate. In the future, the increase in the supply of intermediate products will be faster than the increase in nickel consumption in the new energy sector. The supply and demand of refined nickel may turn into excess, and the midline is expected to be bearish. In the short term, the dominant inventory of global refined nickel is still at a historically low level. Under the condition of low inventory and low warehouse receipts, the price of nickel rises more elastically, and is easily affected by the sentiment of funds. In the short term, nickel price may remain high and fluctuate. However, the current nickel price is at a historical high, there is no actual supply and demand support, or there is a risk of overestimation, and the midline supply and demand are short, which needs to be treated rationally.

■Nickel strategy:

neutral.

■Key points of nickel concern:

Refined nickel inventory warehouse receipts, macro policies, high matte nickel and wet process production capacity commissioning progress, and policies of major nickel suppliers.

304 stainless steel varieties:

The stainless steel futures price stabilized and rebounded yesterday, the spot price dropped slightly, and the basis fell back to the middle level. The spot transaction in Foshan market improved slightly yesterday, but the spot transaction in Wuxi market was still weak. Yesterday, the basis difference of stainless steel in Wuxi market dropped 195 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, the basis difference of stainless steel in Foshan market dropped 195 yuan/ton to 650 yuan/ton, and the SS futures warehouse receipt increased 3573 tons to 32767 tons. According to SMM data, the average ex-factory tax-included price of high-nickel pig iron yesterday was flat at 1355 yuan/nickel point. Recently, with the sharp drop in stainless steel futures prices, the spot profit on the market has turned into a loss.

■Stainless steel point of view:

The short-term supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak, and the midline is expected to increase both. The medium-line production capacity of stainless steel is abundant, and the supply pressure is relatively high, which limits the upward space of prices, and the mid-line consumption is also expected to improve. The mid-line supply and demand increase simultaneously, and there is no obvious opportunity for mismatch. In the short term, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The price of 304 stainless steel raw materials is firm, the cost of steel mills is high, and the profit situation is poor. Influenced by product factors, short-term or weak operation. However, the current futures market profit is already in a state of loss, and it is expected that the space below will be difficult to open, so it is still treated with a shocking thinking for the time being.

■Stainless steel strategy:

neutral.

■Points of attention for stainless steel:

Macro policy, Indonesian nickel product export policy, stainless steel inventory and warehouse receipts.