Macro bullish + low inventory nickel price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly

Recently, the price of nickel futures fluctuated strongly at a high level, breaking through the mark of 210,000 yuan/ton at one point. With the warming of macro expectations, industrial products as a whole showed an upward rebound trend. Important factors affecting nickel prices have landed one after another, but the actual negative impact is relatively weak on the disk. In the state of low inventory at home and abroad, nickel prices continue to fluctuate strongly. It should be noted that the industry chain has relatively limited acceptance of nickel price increases. Therefore, although the disk and market resonance sentiment form a positive support for nickel prices, it is still necessary to be cautious in chasing the rise, and at the same time, attention should be paid to whether there are deviations from the current period.

The macro information is warm and the market sentiment is optimistic
After the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points was fulfilled, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates at a slower rate since December. Recently, the US dollar index has weakened significantly, reducing the pressure on commodities. In the near future, domestic epidemic prevention policies have been optimized, expectations for resumption of work, production and circulation restoration have strengthened, and manufacturing chain restoration is expected to pick up. At the same time, with the comprehensive RRR cut and the landing of the "third arrow" of real estate, the sentiment of the capital market has further recovered, risky assets have been favored, and industrial products have generally recovered. As a kind of non-ferrous metals that is highly sensitive to funds, nickel's price fluctuates significantly.

Nickel supply and demand are intertwined, demand weakens
Although Indonesia's policy of imposing export tariffs on nickel products has not yet been implemented, its impact on the market has gradually weakened. On December 1, the Indonesian government discussed the issue of imposing export tariffs on nickel products, but no conclusion has yet been reached. The current relevant progress is as follows: the nickel export tariff policy has been postponed for 2 years; the later tariff increase will be based on the LME (London Metal Exchange, the same below) (the current negotiated tariff = LME × 0.8 × nickel content × tax rate), which has not yet been fully finalized ; Since the ferronickel factories still disagree with the tax increase, it is estimated that it will take 2 to 3 rounds of meetings to implement the relevant policies.

Judging from the current information, the impact of the extension of the nickel export tariff policy on the current market has weakened, especially for nickel pig iron and stainless steel. As the expectation of increased tariff costs has not yet been fulfilled, the hidden inventory formed by the rush to export nickel pig iron in the early stage has lost its momentum to raise prices, which has a relatively negative impact on both nickel pig iron and stainless steel. However, since the beginning of this year, the news about Indonesia's nickel export tariffs has continued, and the market has repeatedly digested it. The time reflected in the market has gradually shortened, and the fluctuations in nickel prices have also gradually narrowed. Therefore, the impact of the latest news on the nickel futures market is not significant.

The low inventory at home and abroad will continue to support nickel prices. Non-ferrous metals generally maintain a low inventory status, and nickel inventory presents more obvious structural problems. At present, the LME nickel plate inventory is extremely low and has dropped to around 2,000 tons. The total LME nickel inventory is about 53,000 tons, which is at a low level for many years. In addition, compared with other nickel varieties, the supply of electrolytic nickel is still in a tight state, so the relative premium situation continues to exist.

Downstream demand for nickel has weakened in stages. The demand for stainless steel downstream of nickel has not performed well. Since late November, there have been news of production reductions by stainless steel plants. The cost of nickel is affected by the price of iron ore, and there is no incentive to cut prices, resulting in poor profits or even losses for stainless steel plants. In the new energy power battery industry chain, subsidies for new energy vehicles are about to decline, and related production demand has been released, and new energy vehicle companies have started rushing to install them at the end of the year. The supply of MHP (nickel cobalt hydroxide) and high nickel matte, the raw materials for the production of nickel sulfate, which was in short supply in the early stage, is increasing, the supply of nickel sulfate has improved, and the price of nickel sulfate has dropped from the high level. Judging from other demand conditions for nickel, only some alloys just need to continue. After the recent rise in nickel prices, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the basis of electrolytic nickel in the case of unfavorable demand turns.

Nickel prices fluctuate strongly, pay attention to risk control
Nickel prices have continued to fluctuate strongly and sharply recently. The warmer macro environment and the overall low inventory of nickel make nickel prices more sensitive to supply-side disturbance news. At this stage, the market’s long-term sentiment has warmed up, and it is necessary to pay attention to the emergence of negative feedback from the industry. Judging from the current trend of nickel prices, the impact of technology is too much. At present, the nickel price is already near the upper edge of the fluctuation range of 180,000 yuan/ton to 210,000 yuan/ton in the previous period, and there are easy differences between long and short positions. In the future, attention should be paid to the market's digestion of macro pulse resonance. If the US dollar rebounds, market sentiment will change significantly, and nickel prices will be prone to rapid adjustments. In addition, pay attention to the adjustment needs of the industry itself, especially pay attention to the changes in domestic and foreign nickel stocks and the changes in nickel futures premiums and discounts.