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2023-03-01
MEPS predicts that by 2023, global rough stainless steel output will reach 60 million tons. The important contributor of this growth will be steel manufacturers in China and Indonesia.
Although India may still be the third largest stainless steel producer next year, its output is expected to increase by more than 10%. The country's authorities are investing in major stainless steel consumer infrastructure projects.
MEPS's latest predicted downlink risks include geopolitical tensions and recent destocking duration in the West than expected. However, the decline in energy costs and swelling pressure relieve the stainless steel market to bring some optimism.
China
In China, due to the government's decision to relax the restrictions with COVID, the output in the fourth quarter of 2022 was higher than expected. This boosted market sentiment, so domestic steel manufacturers increased their output. In addition, the authorities are providing stimulating measures for the real estate industry, and many market participants believe that this will promote economic activities.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that China's GDP growth rate will rebound to 5.2%this year. This should support the main stainless steel consumer industry, such as construction and home appliance manufacturing. Therefore, MEPS estimates that stainless steel production will reach 34 million tons by 2023.
Europe
In Europe, output from July/September 2022 decreased by about one -third from the previous month. Due to the weak customer demand, the local steel mill has been withdrawn the melting capacity. High interest rates and energy costs have led to a decline in end user consumption.
However, production data from October/November 2022 show that the output in the fourth quarter should return to 1.47 million tons. In addition, several major stainless steel producers are expected to improve in the first quarter of 2023. They believe that supplementary inventory will begin in the short term. Recently, the decline in energy costs and signs of inflation have reached their peaks, and they are also boosting market confidence.
U.S.
The output of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2022 is estimated to be 450,000 tons. It is expected that the recovery of the melting activity in the first three months of 2023 will be slower than Europe. Local dealers may be longer than expected before. However, due to seasonal reasons, melting activities should rebound in the middle of the year.
East Asia
In South Korea, the output of the last three months of 2022 was only 161,000 tons. This is due to the damage caused by Hurricane's stainless steel manufacturing facilities in POSCO earlier this year. However, the company recently announced that its stainless steel cold rolling machine resumed its launch in January. MEPS envisages the increase in production in the 2023 division, and the total annual output reached 2 million tons.
Japan's output is expected to increase by 7%year -on -year, and the output in Taiwan, China will increase by 8.5%. The improvement of the East Asian market emotions should support the rise of stainless steel consumption in 2023. Nevertheless, although the inflation peak may have passed, end user needs in the fields of white appliances and catering equipment may still be restricted.
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